Pentagon Claims Success in New Missile Defense Test

Yesterday’s test involved shooting multiple interceptors at a simulated ICBM.

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

The Pentagon says its missile interceptor is a success—in an early test, at least.

Yesterday the Department of Defense its Ground Based Midcourse Defense system against a simulated intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon of the type North Korea could theoretically launch against the continental United States. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency claims the dry run, which involved launching two interceptor missiles against a single incoming missile, successfully hit the target.

The simulated ICBM launched from the Ronald Reagan Test Site at Kwajalein Atoll, in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Moments later, the U.S. Air Force launched two Ground Based Intercept missiles from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, 4,800 miles away. The two interceptor missiles were launched approximately 50 seconds apart, as shown in the video here:

According to the MDA:

“This test was the first salvo engagement of a threat-representative ICBM target by two Ground Based Interceptors (GBI), which were designated GBI-Lead, and GBI-Trail for the test. The GBI-Lead destroyed the reentry vehicle, as it was designed to do. The GBI-Trail then looked at the resulting debris and remaining objects, and, not finding any other reentry vehicles, selected the next ‘most lethal object’ it could identify, and struck that, precisely as it was designed to do.”

The United States started testing the GBI interceptor in the late 1990s, with the system declared partially operational in 2004. Out of 20 tests thus far, the system has intercepted an incoming missile 60 percent of the time. Although some details are classified, it was long assumed that the Air Force would salvo 4-5 GBIs per incoming warhead to ensure a successful intercept. This test, the first involving two missiles, seems to validate that theory.

The moment of impact from the March 2019 test as the Ground Base Interceptor collides with its target, a simulated ICBM warhead.

The U.S. has 44 interceptors, with 40 based in Alaska and 4 in California. Assuming that the 60 percent intercept rate is accurate, that is enough to ensure the shoot-down of up to 11 incoming warheads. The U.S. missile defense system is not designed to defend against Russia or China, both of whom have dozens if not hundreds of long-range nuclear missiles, but rather a limited strike from a country such as North Korea or eventually Iran.

North Korea is developing several ICBMs, including the KN-14, KN-20, and KN-22, each of which could, in theory, hit most if not all of the continental United States. Despite two summits between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, there is no reduction in the nuclear threat posed by North Korea to the United States.

The MDA claims this latest intercept test was realistic and successful, but there are some details that would be useful to know to further judge how realistic it was. For example, we don’t know if U.S. personnel were told exactly when the ICBM test vehicle was launched or given a window of time when the test would take place. We don’t know the trajectory of the ICBM or other key details.